GEO_SOV_005

Blockade Exposure

Interruption of physical trade flows (LI03) driven by active geopolitical hostility (RP10) in regions where supply chain fragility (LI06) prevents viable rerouting.

Geopolitics & Statecraft 3 Conditions 2 Playbooks

Physical Interdiction. Military or state-enforced cessation of trade leads to total loss of throughput, force majeure declarations, and potential seizure of transit assets.

LI03 Infrastructure Modal Rigidity

≥ 5 / 5

Single-Node Criticality: Requires unique, non-substitutable, and highly specialized infrastructure (e.g., LNG regasification plants, semiconductor fab-grade power/water grids, or spaceport facilities); failure results in total systemic cessation.

RP10 Geopolitical Coupling & Friction Risk

≤ 1 / 5

Hardened Alliance: Bonded by mutual defense treaties (e.g., NATO) and deep intelligence/tech sharing; trade is 'securitized' and protected.

LI06 Systemic Entanglement & Tier-Visibility Risk

≥ 4 / 5

Deep-Tier Opaque: Extremely long supply chains with dozens of 'Black Box' nodes; significant risk of Single Points of Failure (SPOF) at the Tier 3 or Tier 4 level.

Mitigation Strategy

Diversify into alternative transport modalities (e.g., Land-bridge vs Sea) and maintain 'Safety Stocks' outside the blockade zone.

Triggered Playbooks

2 playbooks respond to this risk:

4 steps

Risk Cascade

Rules can trigger other rules in a cascade effect:

Triggers

OPS_FLO_004 Chokepoint Vulnerability

Closure of the Black Sea Grain Corridor due to military escalation, preventing all maritime exports from regional ports.

Blockade Exposure

Business Impact

Trigger Conditions

Triggered Playbooks

Risk Cascade

Triggers

Example Scenario