DIG_SEC_007

Quantum Decryption Threat

Systemic risk to long-lived sensitive data (IN03) protected by classical public-key encryption (RSA/ECC). Adversaries utilize 'Harvest Now, Decrypt Later' (HNDL) to capture data today for future decryption. In 2026, the lack of a verified PQC transition roadmap or a Cryptographic Bill of Materials (CBOM) (DT04) constitutes a failure in 'Duty of Care' under NIS2 and DORA frameworks.

Cybersecurity & Fraud 3 Conditions 1 Playbook

Business Impact

Future Strategic Collapse. Decryption of captured 2025-2026 communications by 2030-2035 leads to total loss of IP and trade secrets. Triggers immediate 2026 regulatory fines for 'Negligent Retention' and disqualification from G7 government supply chains as 'Quantum Readiness' becomes a mandatory procurement gate.

Trigger Conditions

All conditions must be met to trigger this risk

IN03 Innovation Option Value
≥ 5 / 5

Extreme / Infinite Optionality: The product is a platform; breakthrough capacity is transformative; ability to fundamentally rewrite the industry's value proposition overnight.

LI07 Structural Security Vulnerability & Asset Appeal
≥ 5 / 5

Critical Integrity / Peril: Breach results in systemic catastrophe; requires sovereign-level security protocols; loss/theft is an existential security event (e.g., weapons-grade materials, critical national data sets, specialized bio-pathogens).

DT04 Regulatory Arbitrariness & Black-Box Governance
≤ 2 / 5

Standard Bureaucracy: Rules are clear but enforcement can be slow or inconsistent; standard level of administrative 'Noise'.

Mitigation Strategy

Establish a machine-readable Cryptographic Bill of Materials (CBOM); implement NIST-standardized Post-Quantum Algorithms (ML-KEM and ML-DSA) in 'Hybrid' mode alongside classical encryption (PQ/T Hybrid); prioritize 'Crypto-Agility' to allow algorithm swapping without hardware rip-and-replace.

Triggered Playbooks

1 playbook respond to this risk:

DIG Quantum-Safe Migration (Post-Quantum Defense)
4 steps

Risk Cascade

Rules can trigger other rules in a cascade effect:

Example Scenario

Banking / Financial Services (ISIC 6419)

In 2026, a central bank (IN03) fails to secure its inter-bank settlement logs with hybrid PQC. A hostile state actor harvests the data, creating a permanent 'Time-Bomb' risk where all historical financial confidentiality will vanish the moment a CRQC (Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer) is scaled.