GEO_SOV_006

Digital Iron Curtain

Systemic risk of market exclusion driven by aggressive data localization mandates (RP05) and national security data audits (RP11) that conflict with centralized global digital architectures (DT01).

Geopolitics & Statecraft 3 Conditions 2 Playbooks

Business Impact

Market Access Denial. Regulatory firewalls or mandatory app-store removals lead to total loss of regional user base and fragmentation of global network effects.

Trigger Conditions

All conditions must be met to trigger this risk

RP05 Structural Procedural Friction
≥ 5 / 5

Incompatible Sovereignty: Procedural requirements are structurally designed to exclude foreign competition (e.g., 'Great Firewalls,' unique national standards not used elsewhere, or prohibitive quarantine periods).

DT01 Information Asymmetry & Verification Friction
≤ 2 / 5

Transactional Visibility: Data is available upon request or through standard commercial channels; minor lag in reporting (1-3 months).

RP11 Structural Sanctions Contagion & Circuitry
≥ 5 / 5

Primary Enforcement Target: Item exists within a 'High-Friction' legal architecture (e.g., total embargo, OFAC SDN lists, or specialized financial bans); trade requires specialized sovereign waivers to exist.

Mitigation Strategy

Develop a 'Federated' data architecture and utilize local sovereign cloud providers to decouple regional instances.

Triggered Playbooks

2 playbooks respond to this risk:

DIG Infrastructure Repatriation (Sovereign Cloud)
4 steps
DIG Quantum-Safe Migration (Post-Quantum Defense)
4 steps

Risk Cascade

Rules can trigger other rules in a cascade effect:

Example Scenario

Social Media / Cloud Services (ISIC 6312)

A global SaaS provider is banned from a major market because it cannot comply with local 'on-soil' data processing and state-audit requirements.