Market Obsolescence & Substitution Risk
The structural risk of demand evaporation or permanent displacement. Measures the vulnerability of the commodity or service to being abandoned by the global economy.
Scoring Scale (0-5)
-
0Existential / Universal Necessity
Inelastic demand; required for survival, national security, or fundamental civilization (e.g., water, basic grains, foundational compute).
-
1Structural Growth / Transition-Critical
Essential for long-term global shifts (e.g., electrification, urbanization); limited viable substitutes.
-
2Stable Mainstream
Core industrial or consumer requirement; moderate substitution difficulty and consistent utility.
-
3Cyclical / Mature
Demand tied strictly to GDP cycles; well-established but easily substituted or delayed.
-
4Discretionary / Niche
Highly sensitive to sentiment; non-essential utility with high abandonment potential.
-
5Sunset / Obsolete
Structural decline due to permanent technological or social displacement (e.g., thermal coal, physical media).
Score Distribution
How 129 industries score on this attribute
v2.0 scale flip: 5 is now the highest risk (Obsolescence). Focuses on 'Utility Replacement Cost' and 'Economic Criticality' as risk mitigants.
Industry Examples
129 industriesReal industries from our analysis demonstrating each score level for Market Obsolescence & Substitution Risk.
18 more industries
Printing ISIC 1811 Manufacture of refined petroleum products ISIC 1920 Manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products ISIC 2100 Manufacture of computers and peripheral equipment ISIC 2620 Manufacture of consumer electronics ISIC 2640 Manufacture of batteries and accumulators ISIC 2720 Manufacture of engines and turbines, except aircraft, vehicle and cycle engines ISIC 2811 Manufacture of motor vehicles ISIC 2910 Electric power generation, transmission and distribution ISIC 3510 Materials recovery ISIC 3830 Building completion and finishing ISIC 4330 Event catering ISIC 5621 Computer consultancy and computer facilities management activities ISIC 6202 Non-life insurance ISIC 6512 Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy ISIC 7110 Renting of video tapes and disks ISIC 7722 General cleaning of buildings ISIC 8121 Operation of sports facilities ISIC 931165 more industries
Mining of iron ores ISIC 710 Support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction ISIC 910 Distilling, rectifying and blending of spirits ISIC 1101 Manufacture of wearing apparel, except fur apparel ISIC 1410 Manufacture of glass and glass products ISIC 2310 Manufacture of basic iron and steel ISIC 2410 Manufacture of structural metal products ISIC 2511 Manufacture of communication equipment ISIC 2630 Manufacture of measuring, testing, navigating and control equipment ISIC 2651 Manufacture of electric motors, generators, transformers and electricity distribution and control apparatus ISIC 2710 Manufacture of parts and accessories for motor vehicles ISIC 2930 Manufacture of railway locomotives and rolling stock ISIC 3020 Manufacture of air and spacecraft and related machinery ISIC 3030 Manufacture of bicycles and invalid carriages ISIC 3092 Manufacture of furniture ISIC 3100 Manufacture of jewellery and related articles ISIC 3211 Repair of fabricated metal products ISIC 3311 Plumbing, heat and air-conditioning installation ISIC 4322 Other specialized construction activities ISIC 4390 Sale of motor vehicles ISIC 4510 Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles ISIC 4520 Sale of motor vehicle parts and accessories ISIC 4530 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles ISIC 46 Wholesale of computers, computer peripheral equipment and software ISIC 4651 Retail sale in non-specialized stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating ISIC 4711 Retail sale of clothing, footwear and leather articles in specialized stores ISIC 4771 Freight transport by road ISIC 4923 Sea and coastal freight water transport ISIC 5012 Warehousing and support activities for transportation ISIC 52 Warehousing and storage ISIC 5210 Short term accommodation activities ISIC 5510 Software publishing ISIC 5820 Television programming and broadcasting activities ISIC 6020 Wired telecommunications activities ISIC 6110 Wireless telecommunications activities ISIC 6120 Computer programming activities ISIC 6201 Other information technology and computer service activities ISIC 6209 Web portals ISIC 6312 Other monetary intermediation ISIC 6419 Life insurance ISIC 6511 Other activities auxiliary to financial service activities ISIC 6619 Activities of insurance agents and brokers ISIC 6622 Real estate activities on a fee or contract basis ISIC 6820 Legal activities ISIC 6910 Accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy ISIC 6920 Management consultancy activities ISIC 7020 Technical testing and analysis ISIC 7120 Advertising ISIC 7310 Market research and public opinion polling ISIC 7320 Specialized design activities ISIC 7410 Activities of employment placement agencies ISIC 7810 Travel agency activities ISIC 7911 Combined facilities support activities ISIC 8110 Combined office administrative service activities ISIC 8211 Activities of call centres ISIC 8220 Organization of conventions and trade shows ISIC 8230 Higher education ISIC 8530 Other education n.e.c. ISIC 8549 Hospital activities ISIC 8610 Other human health activities ISIC 8690 Creative, arts and entertainment activities ISIC 9000 Library and archives activities ISIC 9101 Gambling and betting activities ISIC 9200 Activities of professional membership organizations ISIC 9412 Repair of computers and peripheral equipment ISIC 951133 more industries
Manufacture of dairy products ISIC 1050 Manufacture of plastics products ISIC 2220 Manufacture of irradiation, electromedical and electrotherapeutic equipment ISIC 2660 Manufacture of domestic appliances ISIC 2750 Manufacture of lifting and handling equipment ISIC 2816 Manufacture of agricultural and forestry machinery ISIC 2821 Building of ships and floating structures ISIC 3011 Manufacture of medical and dental instruments and supplies ISIC 3250 Construction of buildings ISIC 4100 Construction of utility projects ISIC 4220 Electrical installation ISIC 4321 Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet ISIC 4791 Passenger air transport ISIC 5110 Courier activities ISIC 5320 Accommodation ISIC 55 Restaurants and mobile food service activities ISIC 5610 Beverage serving activities ISIC 5630 Motion picture, video and television programme production activities ISIC 5911 Sound recording and music publishing activities ISIC 5920 Data processing, hosting and related activities ISIC 6311 Other credit granting ISIC 6492 Real estate activities with own or leased property ISIC 6810 Research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering ISIC 7210 Veterinary activities ISIC 7500 Private security activities ISIC 8010 Landscape care and maintenance service activities ISIC 8130 Activities of collection agencies and credit bureaus ISIC 8291 Packaging activities ISIC 8292 Defence activities ISIC 8422 Medical and dental practice activities ISIC 8620 Residential nursing care facilities ISIC 8710 Social work activities without accommodation for the elderly and disabled ISIC 8810 Hairdressing and other beauty treatment ISIC 9602Related Strategies
Strategies that incorporate Market & Trade Dynamics pillar analysis (25 strategies):
Playbooks Using This Attribute
2 playbooks use MD01 in their feasibility checks:
Rules Using This Attribute
17 risk rules use MD01 in their trigger conditions: